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[11/24/2025] Comprehensive Analysis of BTC Price Volatility: 1-Hour, 12-Hour, and 1-Day Timeframes with 10 Possible Scenarios for the Next 24 Hours​

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to exhibit significant volatility across multiple timeframes, driven by weakening momentum, expanding volatility bands, and shifts in market liquidity. In this in-depth analysis, we break down BTC's behavior through the 1-hour, 12-hour, and 1-day charts while highlighting key technical indicators such as RSI, MACD, MA clusters, volume flow, and OBV. At the end of the article, you'll find a probability-weighted table of 10 potential BTC scenarios in the next 24 hours.



This article aims to help readers better understand near-term BTC volatility and market structure changes.

1. BTC Analysis on the 1-Hour Chart​

On the 1-hour timeframe, BTC remains in a clear short-term downtrend characterized by consistent lower highs and lower lows.

Key Observations​

Moving Averages (MA 25 & MA 99)

MA 25 is positioned below MA 99, confirming a bearish short-term structure.

The gap between the two moving averages remains wide, signaling a persistent downtrend without early signs of reversal.

Rsi (14)

RSI is hovering near 49, indicating neutral momentum.

The indicator has exited oversold territory, suggesting the recent bounce is a weak technical rebound rather than a strong reversal.

Macd

MACD remains below both the signal line and the zero line.

Although histogram bars are gradually shrinking, they do not yet indicate a bullish crossover.

Volume Profile

No significant spike in volume during recovery candles.

Low-volume rebounds typically reflect a lack of buyer conviction.

1-Hour Chart Summary​

BTC is showing mild recovery but remains structurally bearish. A decisive break above 87, 000–88, 000 USD on strong volume would shift momentum. However, a breakdown below 84, 000 USD could trigger fresh sell pressure.

2. BTC Analysis on the 12-Hour Chart​

The 12-hour chart offers a medium-term perspective, and the market remains biased toward a downtrend.

Key Technical Signals​

Moving Averages (MA 25 & MA 99)

MA 25 has crossed below MA 99, signaling a breakdown of the medium-term bullish structure.

This often precedes multi-session declines unless buyers return with strong volume.

Rsi (14)

RSI around 35 indicates increased bearish pressure.

The level is close to oversold territory but not low enough to confirm a reversal.

Macd

MACD continues to descend sharply.

The wide distance between MACD and the signal line indicates ongoing bearish acceleration.

Volume Behavior

Selling volume increases during down legs, reinforcing the bearish momentum.

Bollinger Band Width (BBW)

BBW expansion indicates growing volatility, suggesting BTC may experience strong moves in the short term.

12-Hour Chart Summary​

BTC's medium-term structure remains bearish. The price sits near a critical demand zone at 84, 000–85, 000 USD. Strong buy pressure is required to stabilize the chart. Otherwise, BTC may continue trending downward.

3. BTC Analysis on the 1-Day Chart​

The 1-day timeframe offers the clearest view of BTC's macro short-term trend. BTC shows signs of being oversold while still in an intact downtrend.

Key Technical Highlights​

Moving Averages (MA 7 – MA 25 – MA 99)

MA 7 is below MA 25.

Price is trading below all major MAs (7, 25, and 99).

→ Clear bearish alignment.

Rsi (14)

RSI~28 indicates oversold conditions.

Historically, BTC often sees at least a short-term rebound when RSI drops below 30.

Macd

MACD is deeply negative, though histogram bars are narrowing.

This often signals slowing bearish pressure but not a confirmed reversal.

OBV (On-Balance Volume)

OBV continues to trend downward, suggesting sustained selling pressure.

No signs of accumulation from large buyers.

Volume Activity

Higher volume on selling candles confirms real selling interest.

1-Day Chart Summary​

BTC is in a major support area and heavily oversold, but without strong inflows, the trend remains bearish. Sustainable reversal requires BTC to reclaim 90, 000 USD with volume expansion.

4. Ten BTC Price Scenarios for the Next 24 Hours​

Scenario	Description & Analysis	Probability
Mild rebound / technical recovery	Bounce from 85k–86k driven by oversold RSI and narrowing MACD histogram.	25%
Tight sideways movement	BTC consolidates in the 84k–88k range as volatility stabilizes temporarily.	20%
Strong upward breakout	Surge in buying activity pushes BTC above 88k–90k.	15%
Continued downward trend	MACD, MAs, and OBV show bearish continuation toward 82k.	15%
Stop-hunt dip	Brief drop below 85k before recovering quickly.	10%
High volatility swings	±5% movement due to macro news or expanded BBW.	7%
Fake bearish breakout	Minor dip followed by a weak bounce, then further decline.	5%
Low volatility range	Tight ±1–2% movement as markets await catalysts.	2%
Strong reversal uptrend	Bullish divergence + strong inflow triggers sharp recovery.	1%
Sharp unexpected crash	Major negative news drives BTC down to 80k or lower.	0.5%

Conclusion​

Across the 1-hour, 12-hour, and 1-day charts, BTC generally remains in a bearish phase with signs of oversold conditions. While short-term rebounds may occur, the broader trend remains weak unless BTC recaptures higher price levels with convincing volume. Traders should closely monitor the 84, 000–90, 000 USD zone, as price action here will likely dictate the next directional move.

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[11/26/2025] BTC Price Volatility Outlook – Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis (1H, 12H, 1D)​

1H Timeframe Analysis​

The 1-hour chart reflects the clearest short-term weakness. Price action repeatedly interacts with the moving averages from above, failing to break through.



RSI remains slightly below neutral, suggesting buyers are not active enough to shift momentum. MACD remains in bearish territory with a flattening slope, indicating a potential short consolidation phase rather than an immediate trend reversal.

Volume continues to taper during upward retracement candles-an indication that dips are still being sold aggressively.

The 86–87k region is emerging as a key intraday balance zone, showing repeated consolidation and acting as temporary support.

12H Timeframe Analysis​

The 12-hour chart confirms a stronger and more mature downtrend. Price has broken below mid-term MAs and continues to trail beneath them without a successful retest.



RSI stays low but not oversold, implying further downside remains possible.

MACD widens negatively, showing sustained bearish momentum. Any rebound at this stage risks becoming a failed rally rather than a trend shift.

The OBV line trends steadily downward, signaling continuous capital outflow and a distribution phase rather than accumulation.

1D Timeframe Analysis​

The daily timeframe provides the broader context:



Bitcoin's mid-trend structure has transitioned into a confirmed downtrend. Price has slipped beneath major support zones and now trades in a deeper correction channel.

RSI sits under 40, reinforcing bearish control while still leaving room for additional downside before exhaustion.

MACD on the 1D timeframe shows strong negative separation-momentum remains firmly bearish.

Volume upticks during selling sessions validate the strength of sellers, further reinforcing the current direction of the trend.

Volatility and Bollinger Band Assessment​

Bollinger Bands on the 1H and 12H chart are narrowing, signaling an imminent volatility expansion.

When BB compression aligns with a broader downtrend, probabilities often favor the breakout occurring downward-unless a large spike in buying volume appears.

Key Support & Resistance Zones​

Support Levels:

• 86k – 85k (local support)

• 83k – 82k (medium support)

• 78k – 76k (macro support)

Resistance Levels:

• 88k – 90k (local resistance)

• 92k – 94k (major resistance)

• 98k – 100k (macro resistance)

A break below 85k could trigger stops and accelerate the decline toward 82k.

Conversely, a 1-hour close above 90k with strong volume may signal the start of a short-term recovery.

Market Sentiment Insights​

Long periods of decline often create defensive market psychology. Many short-term traders reduce exposure, leading to lower liquidity and increasing the likelihood of sudden spikes or flash crashes.

Long-term investors, however, typically reduce selling pressure during dips, creating pockets of consolidation that precede strong directional moves.

BTC Price Scenarios for the Next 24 Hours​

Scenario	Description & Analysis	Probability
1	Sideways movement between 86–87k due to low momentum	35%
2	Mild volatility ±2–3% from current price	25%
3	Technical rebound toward 88–90k if buyers step in	15%
4	Breakdown of support for a 5–7% drop	10%
5	5–8% bullish surge triggered by positive catalysts	5%
6	Sharp sell-off leading to an 8–12% decline	4%
7	Downward fake-out followed by sharp recovery	3%
8	Ultra-low volatility compression	2%
9	Small upward drift of 3–5% from new inflows	1%
10	Flash crash followed by rapid rebound	0.5%

Extended Summary​

Across all timeframes, BTC displays synchronized bearish structure, declining momentum, and weakening buyer participation-a pattern typical of late correction phases.

Although the dominant direction remains bearish, early signals of micro-divergence on the 1H chart suggest the possibility of a technical bounce.

For the next 24 hours, the 85k and 90k zones will be crucial in determining short-term direction. Traders should expect controlled volatility unless external catalysts intervene.

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[11/29/2025] BTC Price Volatility Analysis – Full Technical Outlook Across 1H, 12H, and 1D Timeframes​

1. BTC 1-Hour Chart (1H) Analysis​

The 1-hour timeframe highlights immediate intraday momentum, short-term volatility patterns, and early structural shifts.

1.1 Moving Averages (MA7, MA25, MA99)​

MA7 remains below MA25, signaling short-term weakness.

MA25 trades below MA99, confirming that downward pressure still dominates on lower timeframes.

Despite mild recovery attempts, Bitcoin continues to struggle to flip short-term moving averages into support.

This alignment supports a weak intraday trend and reinforces the idea that BTC may require stronger buying pressure to break higher.

1.2 rsi (14)​

RSI hovers around 45, indicating neutral-to-bearish momentum.

Not yet oversold, meaning there is room for additional downside before buyers gain a stronger edge.

1.3 macd​

MACD remains below the signal line with a still-negative histogram.

Selling momentum, although weaker, has not reversed decisively.

This suggests caution for bulls attempting to reclaim short-term control.

1.4 Bollinger Band Width (BBW)​

BBW is extremely narrow (~0.01), signaling volatility compression.

Historically, such tight squeezes often precede large directional moves.

1H Summary​

The 1-hour chart shows a market in consolidation, awaiting a catalyst.

Key intraday levels:

Support: $89, 500–$90, 000

Resistance: $92, 000–$92, 500

2. BTC 12-Hour Chart (12H) Analysis​

The 12-hour chart provides a broader perspective, capturing medium-term momentum and institutional trading behavior.

2.1 Moving Averages​

BTC remains below MA7 and MA25, indicating persistent bearish pressure.

MA25 crossing below MA99 further validates a medium-term downtrend.

MA99 near $102, 000 forms a major overhead barrier.

2.2 rsi (14)​

RSI stabilizes at 48, showing slight recovery but still below the bullish threshold of 50.

Momentum remains neutral with a mild bearish bias.

2.3 macd​

MACD attempts to turn upward from deep negative territory.

Histogram contraction suggests weakening bearish force.

Potential early signs of bullish divergence forming.

2.4 OBV (On-Balance Volume)​

OBV has been declining but recently shows stabilization.

Reduced selling volume may hint at accumulation.

12H Summary​

The 12-hour chart does not confirm a bullish reversal, but it does show weakening selling pressure. Any sustained hold above $90, 000 may encourage a medium-term recovery.

3. BTC 1-Day Chart (1D) Analysis​

The daily chart remains the most significant timeframe for trend validation.

3.1 Moving Averages​

Price stays below MA7 and MA25, confirming a corrective trend.

MA25 turning downward strengthens the bearish narrative.

MA99 above $108, 000 marks a long-term barrier.

3.2 rsi (14)​

RSI around 40 reflects a moderately bearish sentiment without entering extreme oversold conditions.

3.3 macd​

MACD remains negative but shows reduced bearish momentum.

Histogram shrinkage opens the door for a possible bullish crossover in the coming days.

3.4 Volume Profile​

Declining daily volume indicates reduced market participation.

Usually a precursor to a breakout once volatility expands again.

1D Summary​

BTC remains in a broader downtrend, yet sellers appear to be losing strength. The next 24–48 hours may define whether Bitcoin extends its decline or begins a structural recovery.

4. Top 10 Probable BTC Price Scenarios in the Next 24 Hours​

Scenario	Description & Analysis	Probability
1	BTC rebounds toward $94, 000 as the $90, 000 support holds and indicators show mild improvement	25%
2	Sideways consolidation between $90, 000–$92, 500 with low volatility	30%
3	Pullback toward $88, 000–$89, 000 as selling pressure returns	15%
4	A breakout to $94, 500–$95, 000 followed by a sell-off, closing lower	10%
5	Volatility spike ±5–6% triggered by unexpected news or large orders	8%
6	Sharp breakdown toward $86, 000–$87, 000 with support failure	4%
7	Strong bullish surge toward $96, 000–$97, 000 driven by positive catalysts or inflows	5%
8	Wide intraday swings but closing near $90, 500 due to choppy market activity	3%
9	Early pullback followed by a gradual recovery to $89, 500–$91, 000	7%
10	Extreme breakout ±8–10% driven by liquidations or market shocks	3%

5. Final Outlook​

Across all major timeframes, BTC is entering a tight compression phase where volatility is likely to expand soon. While bearish structure remains visible on higher timeframes, weakening downward momentum suggests the market may be preparing for a decisive move.

Traders should closely monitor:

Reaction at the $90, 000 support

Volatility expansion from the Bollinger squeeze

MACD curve behavior on the 12H and 1D charts

Changes in volume and order flow

A breakout-up or down-may occur within the next 24 hours.

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